Methodology & Transparency

Economic Analysis Methodology

Complete transparency on assumptions, calculation methods, and sensitivity analysis underlying the economic projections presented throughout this website.

Baseline Assumptions

Deployment Scenario

Solar Capacity Target

47 GW

Ground-mounted solar deployment by 2035

Source: UK government net-zero pathway scenarios, aligned with Climate Change Committee recommendations

Analysis Timeframe

30 years

2025-2055 (typical solar panel lifespan)

Note: Conservative estimate; modern panels often exceed 30-year performance warranties

Battery Storage Cost Assumptions

BESS Capital Cost (2024-2030)

£250-300/kWh

Based on BloombergNEF battery price survey and UK grid-scale storage deployment data

TMPV Storage Requirement (47 GW deployment)

170-190 GWh

Required to manage duck curve and provide evening peak supply from midday-only TMPV generation

VBPV Storage Requirement (47 GW deployment)

78-87 GWh

57% duck curve reduction means 94% less storage needed vs TMPV scenario

Battery Storage Savings Calculation

(170-190 GWh - 78-87 GWh) × £250-300/kWh = £121-134 billion

Grid Infrastructure Cost Estimates

Transmission Network Upgrades

£25-35 billion

Based on National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios transmission investment requirements

Distribution Network Reinforcement

£15-18 billion

DNO investment for voltage management and capacity upgrades (TMPV scenario creates midday overvoltage issues)

VBPV Grid Infrastructure Savings

£40-53 billion

Better demand-supply matching + 46% grid hosting capacity increase reduces infrastructure investment

Energy Price Assumptions

Wholesale Electricity Price (Average)

£60-80/MWh

30-year average projection based on DESNZ/Ofgem central scenario (real 2024 prices)

Peak Period Premium

+25-40%

Morning (7-11am) and evening (5-9pm) wholesale prices vs midday baseline

VBPV Revenue Advantage

VBPV's morning/evening generation peaks command premium prices, generating 10-15% higher revenue per kWh compared to TMPV's midday-only generation when prices are lowest.

Calculation Methodology

Total System Savings: £161-187 Billion

Component 1: Battery Storage Savings

£121-134 billion - Avoided battery storage costs due to 94% reduction in storage requirements

(92-103 GWh avoided) × (£250-300/kWh) × (1.3 replacement factor over 30 years)

Component 2: Grid Infrastructure Savings

£40-53 billion - Avoided transmission/distribution upgrades

Better load matching + 46% grid hosting capacity increase reduces reinforcement needs

Total System Savings

£161-187 billion

(£121-134bn) + (£40-53bn) = £161-187bn over 30 years

Energy Output Value Calculation

VBPV Annual Generation (47 GW deployment)

47 GW × 1,200 hours equivalent × 1.20 (VBPV efficiency factor) = 67.7 TWh/year

TMPV Annual Generation (47 GW deployment)

47 GW × 1,200 hours equivalent × 1.00 (baseline) = 56.4 TWh/year

VBPV Annual Output Advantage

67.7 - 56.4 = 11.3 TWh/year additional generation (20% more energy)

Revenue Premium from Peak Timing

VBPV generates during 7-11am and 5-9pm peaks (£75-95/MWh) vs TMPV midday generation (£60-70/MWh)

Result: 10-15% higher revenue per kWh = £2-3 billion additional value over 30 years

Sensitivity Analysis

Economic projections are inherently uncertain. This section shows how results vary with different assumptions.

Key Variable Sensitivities

Battery Storage Cost Sensitivity

If battery costs fall to £150/kWh:£73-82 billion savings (lower bound)

Base case (£250-300/kWh):£121-134 billion savings

If battery costs remain at £400/kWh:£162-181 billion savings (upper bound)

Deployment Scale Sensitivity

35 GW deployment (conservative):£120-139 billion total savings

47 GW deployment (base case):£161-187 billion total savings

70 GW deployment (accelerated):£240-279 billion total savings

Timeframe Sensitivity

25-year analysis period:£134-156 billion total savings

30-year analysis period (base case):£161-187 billion total savings

40-year analysis period (extended warranty):£215-250 billion total savings

Uncertainty Acknowledgment

Technology Cost Trajectories: Battery and solar costs continue declining. Projections use conservative estimates but actual costs may differ.

Policy & Regulatory Changes: Future electricity market design, grid charging structures, and renewable support mechanisms may evolve.

Demand Profile Changes: Heat pump adoption, EV charging patterns, and industrial electrification will shift demand profiles.

Grid Topology Evolution: Distribution of renewable generation, demand centers, and interconnection capacity will change.

Conservative Approach

All projections use conservative assumptions. The VBPV advantage is likely understated because:

Battery costs may remain higher than projected
Peak/off-peak price differentials may widen with EV adoption
Grid hosting capacity benefits may be even larger in constrained areas
Agricultural revenue not included in economic calculations
Biodiversity and carbon sequestration co-benefits not monetized

Independent Verification Needed

These economic projections represent our analysis of available research and data. We strongly encourage:

Independent verification by energy economics experts
Peer review of methodology and assumptions
Site-specific analysis for UK deployment locations
Updated calculations as new research emerges

If you identify errors or have alternative methodological approaches, please contact us with detailed feedback. We are committed to transparency and accuracy in this crucial policy discussion.